oldie
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Post by oldie on Jul 12, 2023 11:05:27 GMT 7
The only thing I know about money is... I enjoy counting notes and hate counting coins. I learnt that when I was 10.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 12, 2023 13:18:16 GMT 7
Gits.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 12, 2023 16:42:28 GMT 7
Perhaps this one will fill in some understanding gaps for others: The US Dollar is at the top of the FOREX tree, all other currencies are measured against it, but how is the value of the US Dollar determined? "The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a relative measure of the U.S. dollars (USD) strength against a basket of six influential currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Korner, and Swiss Franc". No matter what the US Central Bank (Federal Reserve) or the US economy does, it will be reflected in the value of the the US Dollar as compared against the other currencies. For example, if the US economy is running hot and inflation is high, US interest rates will be high and the value of the Dollar will be high(er). 100 is par on the US DI scale, above that it's strong, below that it's weak. If you want to understand how the Baht is doing, look at the US DI and see what its direction is, the DI is here: www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxyAdjust the timeframe from one day (1D) to almost 50 years to understand what happened in the past. Look at September 2022 and covid, the DI was 113.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jul 12, 2023 17:56:22 GMT 7
Perhaps this one will fill in some understanding gaps for others: The US Dollar is at the top of the FOREX tree, all other currencies are measured against it, but how is the value of the US Dollar determined? "The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a relative measure of the U.S. dollars (USD) strength against a basket of six influential currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Korner, and Swiss Franc". No matter what the US Central Bank (Federal Reserve) or the US economy does, it will be reflected in the value of the the US Dollar as compared against the other currencies. For example, if the US economy is running hot and inflation is high, US interest rates will be high and the value of the Dollar will be high(er). 100 is par on the US DI scale, above that it's strong, below that it's weak. If you want to understand how the Baht is doing, look at the US DI and see what its direction is, the DI is here: www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxyAdjust the timeframe from one day (1D) to almost 50 years to understand what happened in the past. Look at September 2022 and covid, the DI was 113. Finally, a post I can understand. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/XXXX_(beer)
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 12, 2023 17:58:35 GMT 7
The Post has an article about the Baht posting its biggest gains in a week, an analyst is quoted who says that the pair could move further downwards, subject to a stable political outcome, AND, a favorable US CPI reading. The analyst is correct to say there is a dependency on the CPI report, we've already talked about that above. But favorable movements over the course of only a week are hardly worth reporting since they form part of everyday trading volatility, a good chum and ex-colleague wont look at any exchange rate movement unless the trend has been confirmed by the 200 day moving average! And the link to the Thai political scene is erroneous, analysts should know better. My advice is to watch the US DI and the political shenanigans to see how all of this unfolds, regarding the value of the Baht and ignore the short term swings completely.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 12, 2023 21:18:54 GMT 7
So, there you have it, the CPI came in at 3% rather than the 3.1% that was expected. The effect was that the US Dollar Index weakened, THB appeared to strengthen as a result and equity markets soared. Meanwhile, the Thai political scenario worsened considerably but Dollar Baht doesn't care.
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rott
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The Baht
Jul 12, 2023 21:32:53 GMT 7
via mobile
Post by rott on Jul 12, 2023 21:32:53 GMT 7
So, what is it you're trying to say.? Or should I ask oldie, he seems to know.
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oldie
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The Baht
Jul 13, 2023 1:26:50 GMT 7
via mobile
Post by oldie on Jul 13, 2023 1:26:50 GMT 7
CPI. I think that means Post Menstral Syndrome.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jul 13, 2023 5:45:26 GMT 7
My summary of the Australian economy goes something like this... We had a "global pandemic" so they told everyone to stay at home. Then the economy collapsed so they printed a pile of money and gave it to the unemployed to spend so that they could collect the cigarette and alcohol tax. Then they allowed the ones that had been infested with numerous trial chemical injections back to work which stimulated the economy on the other sectors, other than alcohol and cigarettes. Then because they had handed out a pile of printed money, inflation took off. So to reign in inflation they raised mortgage interest rates 37 months in a row, basically septupling mortgage repayments and stopping people from spending their money. And that's pretty much where we are today. CM can clarify if I missed anything.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 13, 2023 6:38:44 GMT 7
I think that pretty much nails it oldie, the economics equivalent to a hole in one.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 13, 2023 6:44:51 GMT 7
So, what is it you're trying to say.? Or should I ask oldie, he seems to know. Just that all the headlines about the Baht strengthening or weakening are basically a bunch of tosh. 95% of the time, the value of THB is determined by what happens to USD, that in turn is determined by the state of the US economy, inflation and interest rates. The remaining 5% of the time, changes in THB value can be traced to increased customs exports and inbound tourist numbers, both of which are dependent on the financial health of other countries.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Jul 13, 2023 9:36:08 GMT 7
Ah well, back to Basic Economics 101...
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Jul 13, 2023 9:40:15 GMT 7
However, for the more erudite antipodean financial experts among us here is a more refined budgetary system.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Jul 13, 2023 13:02:41 GMT 7
Perhaps this one will fill in some understanding gaps for others: The US Dollar is at the top of the FOREX tree, all other currencies are measured against it, but how is the value of the US Dollar determined? "The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a relative measure of the U.S. dollars (USD) strength against a basket of six influential currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Korner, and Swiss Franc". No matter what the US Central Bank (Federal Reserve) or the US economy does, it will be reflected in the value of the the US Dollar as compared against the other currencies. For example, if the US economy is running hot and inflation is high, US interest rates will be high and the value of the Dollar will be high(er). 100 is par on the US DI scale, above that it's strong, below that it's weak. If you want to understand how the Baht is doing, look at the US DI and see what its direction is, the DI is here: www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxyAdjust the timeframe from one day (1D) to almost 50 years to understand what happened in the past. Look at September 2022 and covid, the DI was 113. Finally, a post I can understand. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/XXXX_(beer)XXXX cos they can't spell beer
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Jul 13, 2023 19:36:01 GMT 7
45.22
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