I have a very suspicious mind concerning statement probably due to many a year as a SB plod.

However look at the link below, and again it confirms my opinion that in truth nobody knows which way the fiscal winds are a blowing or going to be a blowing...

Here the summary of US equity markets estimates for 2024, by all the major players, within there are links to the individual banks explaining their thinking. JP Morgan, the biggest forecaster, estimates a 10/15% fall in the S&P, virtually all the other players forecast a flat of raising market by amounts up to 10%.

Sure, this is all crystal ball stuff but it's best guesses based on analysis and forethought rather than something merely pulled out of a dark warm place.

So why is that Baht relevant? Because it will give you an idea what is likely in store for the US markets which is home to the almighty USD and is also Thailand's biggest single export market. FWIW, every global forecast I have read, all say pretty much the same thing in that Asia and the Far East economies will all outperform Western economies by a significant margin, in 2024. It's clear to me from looking at global equities investment funds that Fund Manager believe these things are true, very few hold more than 60% in US market assets and all are increasingly spread across other regions, whereas a year ago, that picture was much more US markets centric. Plus JMP is putting it's money where its mouth is, my JPM equities fund holdings are 22% in Cash!


markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2024-stock-market-investment-outlooks-wall-street-prediction-roundup-sp500-2023-11

99,999 US, my, everyone will be driving 'em then!

How will Donny effect the baht, hmmm,a good question. 

Almost certainly USd will fall in value under Trump, just as it did before. Trump is not known for his economic reform, just his rhetoric. USD, like any currency, likes certainty and Trump doesn't provide that, expect USD/THB at sub 30 once again.

The US Dollar Index is like a schizoid who keeps forgetting to take their meds. Up and down continuously, bulls vs bears alternately believing that the Fed is done raising rates, inflation is coming under control, rates will begin to fall early next year and that normal service is being resumed. Yesterday and today they think it isn't, tomorrow they will probably think it is, a financial markets pantomime.

The consensus for next year is:

1) Rates will begin to fall, somewhere between first and second quarter is the start of that race, how far and how fast they fall will depend on the speed of the economy and recession.

2) There will be a global synchronised economic slowdown next year, nowhere will be immune, how much and how far depends on the above but the starting gun has already been fired.

3) US markets are overvalued, China is undervalued, as the latter surges, Thailand will benefit.

4) Geopolitical risk remains high and may make things worse suddenly. Ukraine/Russia is at a stalemate and nobody wants to negotiate, the risk that Russia will do something even more stupid is high. The ME is a large open gunpowder keg and there are kids running around it with lighted candles.

5) Political risk is also high. The prospect of a Trump win in November has increased, this will be negative for the global economy and for USD. The UK also preparing a welcome mat for the first labour government in years, this will be negative for the UK economy and the Pound but at least the population will be happier. BoT is forecast to increase rates later this year in order to contain forecasted inflation, ouch. THB stands has the potential to make some big gains as a result, watch out. The effects of El Nino on agriculture in Thailand remains a wild card but increasingly look negative.

I think it's more a case of, if you place weight on one end of the seesaw, the other end will else, it's as simple as that.

As for orchestration by CB's and giving suckers an even break....oh pulease!

Harsh and cutting, how impolite, I'm deeply deeply offended.....I shall expect a case of the finest orange juice or similar for Xmas, by way of recompense.

The truth is, I don't buy into these conspiracy theories, I think to do so confirms a fundamental lack of understanding, particularly where CB's are concerned. Of course CB's work in  unison at times, on specific issues, curtailing tax evasion, currency support, calming market jitters and so on. But to imagine that CB's are part of a concerted eveil global plot to contain and restrain the small guy, poohey.

I sent a wad of cash over on Sunday...wot rate am I getting?

Plz say 70 or 75 ......!