chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 25, 2023 19:03:30 GMT 7
Pft, digital, pidgital, it's hokus pokus as far as I can see.
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qece
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Post by qece on Nov 25, 2023 19:56:39 GMT 7
Pft, digital, pidgital, it's hokus pokus as far as I can see. Isn't everything? Nothing short of calculated misdirection and deceptions.
Nothing up their sleeves.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 26, 2023 7:43:03 GMT 7
There's a short piece linked below which includes a video report from Blackrocks Chief Investment Strategist who reckons that the current rise in US equities will be short lived. Wei Li reckons that US equities are way overpriced which is a common message being repeated by many. She also believes that the Fed will begin reducing rates around mid 2024 as the lagging effect of high interest rates drag on US business performance. I can certainly agree with all of those things. Many US investment funds diversified into European equities last year and this, that means that European markets are also becoming expensive, note from the chart that EM markets are undervalued at present. But the most important parts of what she has to say is the fair value table. She reckons that Global Corporate Investment Grade and EM bonds, are over valued. Those things point towards lower earnings by companies which is ln line with the idea of a US recession in 2024 but is the opposite of what the US equities markets are saying presently! So, if you ask if an S&P crash is likely, I would still say the same thing as before but a correction seem seems very possible. finance.yahoo.com/video/market-themes-bulls-may-missing-155205986.html |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 27, 2023 17:18:22 GMT 7
The Post reports that 10 airlines have cancelled flights between Thailand and China, as a result of low demand. Shares in Thai hotels and in AOT, fell as a result
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Nov 27, 2023 17:39:08 GMT 7
Might this show that the Brother Grimm at TAT are possibly ingesting like the current financial wizards involved in the country's fiscal area(s) dubious sweeties or cigarettes thus clouding their minds as to the harsh realities of wonga?  |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 27, 2023 19:18:20 GMT 7
Off the top of my head, they are 500k chinese tourists under target on a total of around 4 million, only 12% or so. Not exactly a hanging offense but a serious loss of face I imagine, especially after the visa free entry.
The problem is that THB is such a small currency that even minor events like this have an impact.
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qece
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Post by qece on Nov 27, 2023 19:28:58 GMT 7
Might have a different take on most everything if one is making Baht and spending Baht instead of the false and propped up dependency of this imaginary foreign exchange.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 28, 2023 5:51:19 GMT 7
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Nov 28, 2023 11:30:47 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 28, 2023 11:37:06 GMT 7
"Shop for the sake of the country". I'll bet Somachai and Nok who get by on 8K baht a month are saying to themselves, we have to do this, for the good of the country....yea, right! The man is so far out of touch it's seriously unfunny.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Nov 28, 2023 16:34:26 GMT 7
In Australia they're trying to stop us spending for the good of the country. Giving money to the banks for nothing is a much better idea.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 29, 2023 10:15:07 GMT 7
US traders are fully pricing in a rate cut in June, with the chance of a cut happening in May priced at about 80%, according to swaps market data.
Equities meanwhile are paused but could easily surge again, depending on the markets view of future rate cuts.
US 10 year bond rates are falling quite sharply to about 4.2
USD is down to 102.X and racing towards par (USD down, equities up) (Thai positive)
All the indicators are that USD and the US economy are weakening, the Fed may therefore cut rates sooner rather later.
Oil has fallen to $76 which is pretty much fair value. (Thai positive)
Inflation rates in key economies are around 4%, China is in deflation.
The chances of a stronger THB are increasing,
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Nov 29, 2023 10:45:29 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 29, 2023 10:56:20 GMT 7
A US recession is making less and less sense, unless the Fed goes and does something stupid, such as not lower rates and Jerome is pretty alert to the issues. A recession is defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP. GDP in 3Q23 was the highest since 2021, it came in at 4.9% whilst the forecast growth for all of 2024 at this moment in time, is 0.8%. Is that recessionary? Yes, technically but only by definition, not in practise. EDIT: An extremely interesting and detailed analysis of the US and THai economies going forward, it's all there and is a MUST read. res.innovestxonline.com/stocks/extra/57676_20230913181645.pdf |
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Nov 29, 2023 11:53:54 GMT 7
Indeed an interesting read which I think is mainly conjecture based on the lines of a Nostradamus prophecy. Remember, experts know very little about a great deal, and specialists know a great deal about very little. Or it could be based upon fiscal manipulators ongoing and future market control plans... I'll now go and don my shiny tin foil hat.  |
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Jan 4, 2023 21:15:53 GMT 7
Jan 4, 2023 21:15:53 GMT 7
