siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Aug 11, 2023 8:44:20 GMT 7
A cut and paste that really inspires confidence in the economic policies of a possible Pheu Thai-dominated coalition Parliament. Paophum also disagreed with the central bank governor’s statement that financial institutions should focus on stability, saying banks should not be trapped by “stability” but instead become mechanisms for driving economic power to the grassroots level and SMEs. He added that banks should not shun risky groups from the economic system. |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 11, 2023 11:32:32 GMT 7
Really, you couldn't make it up if you tried. I sense the spokesperson was schooled at the TVF School of Economics, Walen branch.
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rott
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Post by rott on Aug 11, 2023 12:46:06 GMT 7
Perhaps it came to me in a dream but at one time I think banks would lend (mainly) to people with adequate security who could show that they could afford the repayments. I remember being told that banks are not in the risk business. Going outside the above criteria inevitably means an increase in NPLs.
I remember just before the UK banking crisis, receiving a flyer from the Halifax offering unsecured personal loans of up to £25,000. Not a flyer in an envelope with a statement but just the flyer,ie a direct mailshot pronotion. Don't see Thai banks going that far though.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 11, 2023 13:50:21 GMT 7
This is where the separation of retail banking from investment banking is important. Retail is not in the risk business but the investment arm is. Historically, unsecured lending and higher risk lending is in the finance house arena. Mixing it with secured lending is a risk to the retail arm. Deposit takers are banks, their lending must be secured on some form of collateral. Finance houses are privately owned and they can afford to gamble because they don't take deposits, they just charge high rates of interest.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Aug 14, 2023 22:27:31 GMT 7
Looks like there's a few chinks in the Great financial Wall of China
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Aug 15, 2023 20:47:32 GMT 7
MFP are not backing PT in the voting for PM. More instability I think
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Aug 16, 2023 5:40:03 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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The Baht
Aug 16, 2023 12:32:00 GMT 7
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 16, 2023 12:32:00 GMT 7
All emerging markets are being hurt by high US interest rates and USD strength versus their home currencies weakness, it won't last forever.
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chiangmai
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The Baht
Aug 17, 2023 7:09:35 GMT 7
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 17, 2023 7:09:35 GMT 7
The US Dollar Index is on the march upwards, a stronger dollar, falling equities, a better exchange rate but at what cost!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 17, 2023 8:17:56 GMT 7
The implications of higher US rates and a stronger USD, doesn't bear thinking about. China and Asia are already in economic difficulty and the UK is under extreme pressure. It may produce a more attractive exchange rate for expats but the residual damage will be extensive, higher mortgage rates and repossessions, crashed pension funds and ultimately, poorer economies in many places, especially here.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Aug 17, 2023 20:34:24 GMT 7
I saw an article by a British economist who came up with the Brics Acronym. He says it's crazy for China and India to be in this Bloc, when they're at each others throats
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 17, 2023 21:24:05 GMT 7
I saw an article by a British economist who came up with the Brics Acronym. He says it's crazy for China and India to be in this Bloc, when they're at each others throats But isn't this the old dichotomy of economics versus politics? They may fight border wars but they will still continue to trade with each other. |
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chiangmai
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Aug 19, 2023 8:23:53 GMT 7
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 19, 2023 8:23:53 GMT 7
UK government bond yields have surged as investor bet the UK will raise rates even further. This will be dire for UK borrowers and the UK housing market, it won't do the UK economy much good either! Why did they surge? Because US investors are making the same bet, now that the US Fed thinking has been revealed. Meanwhile, equities have fallen globally on the back of rate news and the less than helpful news about the Chinese economy plus bonds are being repriced. Hmm, is there any good news, anywhere? Well yes, buying bonds instead of equities seems like a sensible thing for older people to do, it reduces risk and produces a sound revenue income stream, if you're happy with 5 ish per cent that is.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 23, 2023 7:33:09 GMT 7
If you were holding Emerging Market funds in the expectation of a rebound at some point, you probably got burned by the news out of China, I did. And if you were holding Aussie funds you probably also got burned since the Oz Dollar is seen as a proxy for RMB, I did!
But never mind, my EM holdings are less than 10% and China/Oz less than 6% so I'm holding on to them.
USD still looks strong, the big event this week on the US calendar is Jackson Hole, the words of wisdom from that meeting will determine markets direction and USD strength.
One question this week must be whether, now that Thai politics have found a direction, will that see a strengthening THB, I'm guessing not.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 25, 2023 5:44:41 GMT 7
Equity markets have had a great 48 hours, NVIDIA hit new highs plus I recovered most of my earlier losses, USD was weaker at 102.9. But now, they've gone into reverse and all the major indices are down at least 1% and Nvidia is barely showing any gain at all. USD if up and pushing 104%! This reversal of fortunes is down to one single reason, the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US will give a speech at Jackson Hole today and markets are expecting him to give negative hints about the economic future of the US.......such is the power of the mighty bloody Dollar, it's pathetic. "As much as investors want to focus on Nvidia and want to focus on tech - and it's been a good year so far - this is still a market that is Fed obsessed. T his is still all about what is Jay Powell going to say tomorrow to mess things up... that may lead investors to be sellers instead of buyers," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma. www.reuters.com/markets/us/nasdaq-futures-rally-1-nvidias-blowout-results-lift-ai-stocks-2023-08-24/ |
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