Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2016 7:54:34 GMT 7
Good morning. Remain campaigners won’t be sitting comfortably this morning when they read the results of today’s ORB poll for the Telegraph, which finds that support for Leave is seven points ahead (52/45). The secret to their success is enthusiasm, as when ORB discounted people’s likelihood to vote, the campaigns were essentially tied, with Remain on 47% and Leave on 49%. So with less than 100 days to go until referendum day, does this mean the Brexiters have it in the bag? The final outcome remains “in the balance” according to Sir Lynton Crosby, the election guru who delivered victory for David Cameron last year. “If as the election draws closer, Leave voters still do not believe their vote can affect the outcome, their engagement and motivation may tail off,” he writes in today's paper. “Poignantly, the challenge for both campaigns is the same: to raise the importance of the referendum outcome and demonstrate to their voters that there really is the potential for Leave to win.” This poll is the first in a series we'll be doing during the campaign seeking to track underlying mood of the nation on key issues around the referendum and the likelihood of people voting, with Sir :Lynton providing regular analysis throughout. Continues: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194231/Morning-Briefing-Britain-on-the-edge-of-Brexit.html |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 16, 2016 8:57:08 GMT 7
With such a close tie we only need an 'event' which catches the imagination of people to switch one or the other way. Nothing objective in this decision.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Mar 16, 2016 10:48:52 GMT 7
Seem to recall that there was going to be a massive ''yes'' vote for Scottish Independence not so long back.
Brexit campaign still has a long way to go yet .
There's a big difference twixt a fart and tearing ones arse
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me
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Post by me on Mar 16, 2016 10:52:51 GMT 7
Long way to go yet . There's a big difference twixt a fart and tearing ones arse Would not that analogy be more applicable if it was europe voting to get rid of the UK.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2016 12:54:21 GMT 7
Seem to recall that there was going to be a massive ''yes'' vote for Scottish Independence not so long back. Brexit campaign still has a long way to go yet . There's a big difference twixt a fart and tearing ones arse You've misjudged that, SP - The Yes side were always behind - we started with about 32% of the electorate in favour of yes. Only one poll had us ahead, and that was The Times poll two weeks ahead of the referendum which I think was 51/49% - the poll that caused Unionist panic. 100 days out from the referendum, for the Leave side to be not only ahead, but by the numbers quoted, is a serious problem for Cameron. I agree with Rubl, an event will decide this election, and to be brutally honest the only potential events coming up are going to be in favour of the Leave camp. Another Paris? A similar attack on Britain? Another Tunisia? Or more likely, another spring like last years refugee debacle. I'm of the opinion that all these borders are being closed on the quiet orders of Merkel as she knows, any Eurocrat must know, that another spring like last year will see the UK vote to leave. I'm also of the opinion that's why France is moving to bring order to the Jungle in Calais. TV pictures of hundreds of young men storming trucks and trains will again ensure that the UK will vote out. Watch the media battle that's going to explode over the next few months between the print press and TV. The BBC will do anything to suppress the Leave campaign - and you'll find their editors convienently ignoring stories that don't suit them - while the Daily Mail, Daily Express, and others will cry foul and load their newspapers full of ISIS/Refugee/Muslim Sex Gang/Benefits Fraud stories. I know the BBC will suppress, I've seen them do it before, Channel Four news are slightly left of Karl Marx so they'll suppress too - I don't know where SKY TV and ITN will go with their coverage. coverage. Rupert Murdoch will decide for SKY - and he's playing both sides the same way he did in the Scottish referendum. I don't want an Out vote, but it looks like that's the way it's going. |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 16, 2016 13:27:28 GMT 7
Every little Englander lives in his castle....this is one where the shires will rise and vote to keep their moats up at any cost.
I can't see anything other than a bloody nose for Cameron and an exit of the EU.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Mar 16, 2016 14:29:07 GMT 7
Some sections of the community will want to stay in the E U no doubt due to ease of access.  |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 16, 2016 23:30:08 GMT 7
Now apart from the more subjective arguments which are difficult to quantify, what about the financial picture?
The British part of the European budget of 150 billion Euro is about 10% with deductions going to a bit less. About 70% (as far as I know) is returned in the form of subsidies and certain projects financing. As the British participation is paid from various taxes one might assume that
. the British government will continue the subsidies and projects financed now by the E.C.
. the British government might reduces some taxes
. the British government has new plans for spending taxpayers money
Did someone already give ideas about this?
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Mar 25, 2016 5:52:52 GMT 7
Well one reason for staying in hit the toilet. Safer in. H,mm the 2 brothers were on a US watch list and Belgium calls them petty criminals. A plot spoiled in Paris with a major arrest, just breaking.
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