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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 27, 2015 13:23:32 GMT 7
The SET looks a bit dull at the moment. I don't see much inspiration to take it upwards in the short term. On the downside, I don't see much upcoming news to move it significantly there either. So most likely it probably trade in about 1530 to 1570 range for a while. Doesn't look much will happen on interest rates - no move expected from MPC Wednesday, or from the US. So likely external events would dominate. Am still uneasy with many of the global markets valuations, but unless something kicks off somewhere, expect the SET to be dull The banking sectors 1st quarter 2015 results are out. Valuations based on long term averages look not too expensive at around 10 - 11 times, which is significantly lower than the wider SET index. Dividend yields at around 3.5% on average aren't too bad either. Looking forward though it won't be an easy year for the banks, but downside risk (excluding global corrections) looks limited. below is a link to a thread on that: bigmango.boards.net/thread/889/thai-banking-sectorCheers Fletch  |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 28, 2015 20:18:19 GMT 7
SET was a bit more lively today, and fell to around 1525 at its lowest, before recovering to close down about 17 points at 1531. There seems to be a support level its been testing and buying kicks in around 1528. This is shown on the daily technical analysis here: www.investing.com/indices/thailand-set-technical?period=86400Will be interesting to see tomorrow. UK and Europe markets are down so far today, which will add pressure on that support level. I follow more the SET50 index as it links with futures and options, which are based on SET50 not SET. The same pattern there though. The key support level today was 1007, which it dipped briefly below before closing at 1011. For trading, I closed out my short S50M15C1050 positions for a profit today. (i.e I Sold / shorted June SET 50 call options at 1050 strike price a while back, and bought back today at a price around half of what I sold them for originally for a nice gain). It may bounce up a bit from here, and might possibly bounce back to 1050+ at some point before June (4% gain in 2 months is possible), so I was just taking the profits, as I'm not sure where exactly it will go before June. The calls I sold/shorted at 1100 and 1125 I'm keeping. I see almost no chance of the SET50 going from 1007 to 1100 or 1125 by June. That would need to be a 10% gain in the index in 2 months, so will just pocket the premiums as profit - hopefully. As we enter "sell in May and go away' period soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell off on the Thai stock market at some point. Cheers Fletch |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 29, 2015 10:30:04 GMT 7
Reasonably summary of yesterday from the Bangkok Post. So much better than that other newspaper... and nice to be able to quote it on here, where things are more relaxed and less regulated -------------------------------------------------- SET index falls on poor Q1 figures
Published: 29/04/2015 at 07:12 AM Newspaper section: Business Thai shares plunged 1.12% yesterday on concerns that worse-than-expected exports will deal a further blow to the economy amid a dearth of positive signs. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index started on a sour note, and selling pressure intensified in the afternoon session. The main gauge dipped to the day's trough of 1,525.92 points before closing at 1,531.53 or a 17.3-point decline. Turnover was brisk at 48.8 billion baht. Banking blue chips were part of the selling spree due to downbeat earnings in the first quarter. Institutional and foreign investors and brokers yanked 2.84 billion, 2.65 billion and 1.21 billion baht, respectively, out of the stock market yesterday, while retail investors were net buyers of 6.7 billion. "Investors are fretting over the economy, while there's no good news to cheer up the mood," said Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, a senior vice-president of Asia Plus Securities. Anxiety over Greece's debt could flare up at any time, while the Bank of Thailand's rate-setting committee is expected to stand pat on its policy rate at today's meeting, he said, adding that offshore fund inflows would not increase significantly. Following retreats, investors can buy on weakness but must selectively invest in firms with improving first-quarter earnings, Mr Therdsak said. Asia Plus Securities is maintaining its SET index target this year at 1,650 points but will consider a revision after the end of the first-quarter earnings season. Kittichan Sirisukarcha, head of retail research at CIMB Securities (Thailand), said weak exports and lower-than-expected banking earnings in the first quarter reinforced signs of further doldrums in the economy. If the Monetary Policy Committee decides to keep the benchmark rate unchanged and the Federal Open Market Committee in the US gives clues about its interest rate, the SET index should move sideways for a while, he said. Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/544867/set-index-falls-on-poor-q1-figures. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 13, 2015 11:52:51 GMT 7
SET closed down yesterday at 1485.72, which is below 2014's close of 1497.67 and takes it into negative territory for the year.
Main factors seem to be a combination of global factors: China's slowdown, Greece fiasco; combined with a weaker baht making Thai assets less attractive as people expect THB to weaken further, plus a slow domestic economy.
It's bounced a bit today to around where it started the year.
The positive side of the pullback we've been seeing is that it's eased some off the pressure on the market looking overvalued, so decreases the risk of a much bigger correction/crash. SET's P/E is still over 20, at 20.2 so doesn't look cheap unless Thai earnings start to pick up.
With summer coming up and sell in May, it looks like the market could continue to head sideways down for a while...
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 16, 2015 17:46:55 GMT 7
Some signs that earnings might be picking up. SET really needs that with historic P/E still over 20 if it's to make any decent progress. Forward looking P/E is looking better at 15 IF earnings hold up ----------------------------------- SET sees stronger Q1 results, firming economy after 'bottom'Published: 15/05/2015 at 06:30 AM Bangkok Post Newspaper section: Business Seeking to dispel jitters, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says listed companies' first-quarter earnings are expected to surpass the 202 billion baht recorded in the same period last year. The 306 SET-listed companies that have already submitted their financial results posted a combined net profit of 199 billion baht, said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, vice-president in charge of the SET's Capital Market Research Institute. Those companies make up 77% of the SET's market value. More than 500 companies trade on the SET. The disappointing earnings of local banks and the unexpected policy rate cut by the central bank have heightened concerns that companies will generate weak earnings, plunging the SET index below the 1,500 level. The SET yesterday eked out a 0.1% rise to close at 1,497.40 in moderate turnover worth 34.71 billion baht. Mr Kiatipong said lower oil prices gave a boost to the bottom line of listed companies, the transport sector in particular, while an increase in foreign tourists also lent support. If oil prices do not fall below US$40 a barrel, listed companies' aggregate net profit in the second and third quarters will be higher, he said, adding that an improving economy would also be a plus. Energy companies weigh heavily on the SET index. "I believe that the first-quarter net profit was the bottom this year," Mr Kiatipong said. "The overall economy is gradually improving." He said foreign investors were likely to return to the Thai equity market, as their 31.3% holding of market value is the lowest level in a decade and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is down to 15 after the recent pullback. Foreign investors have pulled 8.99 billion baht from the Thai stock market so far. The SET index rose by 1.4% in April from the previous month and 1.9% from the end of last year to 1,526.74 points. The SET's market cap rose by 1.42% month-on-month in April to 14.32 trillion baht, while the Market for Alternative Investment saw a 3.33% rise to 411 billion baht. www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/562003/set-sees-stronger-q1-results-firming-economy-after-bottom |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2015 20:32:12 GMT 7
So... a rather dull quarter for the Thai stock markets: SET up +0.4% over 3 months and SET50 down -0.2% over 3 months. Don't see anything to lift it substantially in the next 3 months either, and with usual summer don't see anything interesting domestically. The only factors likely to cause a big shift seem possible negative global factors with the usual suspects of China, Greece, Russia and interest rate rises looking like some of the main risks.
On the positive side, just had a great quarter trading SET50 options, with June series just closed out. YTD up +67% profit on capital, which considering the SET and SET50 have gone nowhere this year, up +1.0% and down -0.5% is a very nice result, and nice to have that string to my bow to add a little extra. Mainly just writing out of the money options then close out when the market moves in favour, for little risk, and just repeat when it moves back to where it was
December's futures and options series opened today. A couple of interesting points:
- No real offers or bids on December SET50 call options. The only offers or bids were on put options, but again not many. Although it is early days.
- September put options still trade at a premium to fair value, however, December put options were at a discount to fair value.
- September call options still trade at significant discounts to theoretical values
Suggests that people are worried more about the next 3 months, and want some protection over that period, which is risk I don't mind trading when they're paying over fair value, although I always play smaller amounts on puts than calls. No-one seems bullish, although they are less negative for Q4
On SET50 futures, a similar picture:
- 19 points discount vs theoretical price for September
- 17 points discount vs theoretical price for December
No one looks bullish.
For options trading: Looks like the money for 3rd quarter to September would more likely be made on the put side: writing Sep puts, and then closing out when the market rises a bit, before setting up again on the dips. Not much seems worth it on the call side this time round.
Looking back over June series I did very well selling SET50 calls at 1100 and 1125 (strike price 10% - 12.5% above where it ended up) = very easy money and no chance it would get there... that would have mean SET being around 1650-1690 if SET50 was 1100-1125. Even if by some miracle it did get there as I've long positions in Thai equities from mutual funds/LTFs I wouldn't mind losing a bit on options
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871 
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Post by AyG on Jun 30, 2015 9:35:07 GMT 7
The economy is stagnating, and I can only see two things on the horizon which might get things moving again: (a) starting some large infrastructure projects, (b) shifting from interest rate targeting to foreign exchange rate targeting at the BoT.
I can't see the former happening this year. In fact, I find the inability of successive governments to launch infrastructure projects curious. Surely there's the incentive in the form of massive kickbacks to the politicians and bureaucrats involved to get these projects under way. And it's positively unbelievable that we're coming up to 4 years after the massive flooding that caused so much economic damage to the country and nothing has been done to prevent a recurrence.
As for exchange rate targeting, the likelihood of that that depends upon who becomes next BoT governor. Supavud is for it, Veerathai against. However, even if Supavud gets the job, it's possible that his hand will be stayed by the Bank's board members and the Finance Ministry.
In short, I suspect the SET will be treading water for some time to come.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 30, 2015 13:27:04 GMT 7
There are some infrastructure projects going thru, but as you say don't think those + the FX rate will give much of a lift.
The pick up hasn't happened in Q2, so now the hope is for earnings to pick up in Q3 or Q4. SET still trades on a P/E of just over 20, although on a "forward looking" (hope basis) people quote 15-ish. Treading water or global external shock. Any chance of a decent rally would have to be Q4, and so far am not convinced.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
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Post by AyG on Jul 1, 2015 12:27:09 GMT 7
Headline from the Bangkok Post website today:
"All numbers were down for May, and the Bank of Thailand has no suggestions how to make the economy grow, after two cuts in interest rates had no effect."
That kinds of sums it up.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 2, 2015 12:59:36 GMT 7
I reckon University of Thai Chamber of Commerce have been reading your Mango posts AyG. There's a section in BKK Post business section today where a lady is quoted saying:
"Based on the latest figures, it's a must for the government to rev up injecting money into the system, tame the baht's strength...... "
Apparently we now have technical deflation.
Thought the SET might rally a bit this morning, given strength in UK and Europe equity markets yesterday, plus a positive US session, and a good start to Australia when I got up. Not to be though, and looks like the SET is sliding sideways down, perhaps based on domestic factors rather than global for once. Shame as I'd hoped to maybe sell some calls if the market rallied a bit...
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 2, 2015 19:25:06 GMT 7
As the SET fell today, I was hoping it (or at least the SET50) would drop a few more points, then they'd open another contract on TFEX options. At the moment for September series, there are options open all the way between 925 to 1100 with the SET50 having dropped from 990 to 980 ish today. For December though, as a new quarter only 2 out of the money options either side are open, i.e from 950 to 1050 range. 950 is only a 3% downward move from today, and not something I'd like to bet against over a 6 month period. If it had ended below 975, they'd have opened the 925 series, and I'd be quite happy trading in and out of that at a premium and 6% cushion |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 23, 2015 0:07:47 GMT 7
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 24, 2015 21:48:49 GMT 7
Thai stock market's now looking very unloved. Down 10% - 12% since end July depending on which Thai index you look at. On the investment side I hold for the long term and so am not too worried about these sort of corrections as they happen. To be expected if you invest in (Thai equities). Just means my monthly LTF purchase buys quite a few more units than previous months  On the trading side which for me is short term up to 6 months, I'm a bit disappointed I got caught by recent events moving quicker than expected. September SET50 index futures and options could be my first losing trading quarter in over a dozen straight quarters winning streak. SET was down nearly 5% today but managed to keep above 1300. SET50 was down over 5% to 840 today. Difficult to see anything that will set off a large rally before end of September so I bought enough September 825 puts to make sure that should the market fall below 825 any trading losses for this quarter would be capped. 825 being only 2% below where we are now. That's too say I wouldn't like to bet against the Thai equity markets going more than 2% lower from here and have started to protect my trading side if/when they do |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 27, 2015 22:04:06 GMT 7
Well as often happens, the day I start hedging myself that I'm not prepared to accept the markets going any lower they then rebounds leaving me with the feeling that if I hadn't hedged I could have saved money It's key to manage your risks though and I wasn't prepared to accept possible significant drops below 825 on SET50 and 1300 on SET so protected just in case. Been a good couple of days though and profitable on the upswings from trading. Could have been more if I hadn't decided to protect the downside and limit possible losses. Still very hard to predict what's coming next and where the SET will go short term with these swings. So very much long on dips short on rallies for now, and take a couple of days at a time. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Sept 30, 2015 10:14:25 GMT 7
SET around 1350 and SET50 around 870. Despite some heavy falls in the last couple of months it's still hard to call where things will go next.
Thai stock market still doesn't look cheap at around 17.8x P/E. Earnings to date haven't really met the optimism at the start of the year and growth / economic forecasts keep getting revised down.
On the other hand if markets globally pick up towards the end of the year and Thailand seasonally goes up more often than not in the last quarter helped often by LTF buys.
YTD, the SET is down around 10% with the damage coming in the last quarter down 10.7%.
I had mixed feelings about my SET50 options trading for the last quarter to Sep. As in last post the market fell quicker than expected in August, as did markets globally - even though you know there's always the possibility it was still a bit sudden. So the speed of the drop caught me a little. On the other hand at least it was a profitable quarter - even if only just scraped it and flat/very small profit that's not bad when the market falls over 10%.
YTD still looking good/ profitable on options tradings as first and second quarters were good even if third quarter mixed. Nice to have a different string to your bow make money when markets are sideways/ down...
Let's see where Dec ends up...
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