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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 20, 2015 18:34:27 GMT 7
Sorry badger lovers. This isn't a thread cataloging the home of badgers of either species, but about the other SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand). So what's your views on where the SET has been, is now, or going? Cheers Fletch
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 20, 2015 18:37:20 GMT 7
A view from Friday's BKK post. It suggests a near term target of 1570 to 1600. That's upside, and in my view that's limited at the moment, and I see more risks to the downside ----- SET gains on oil price rise, Fed's likely rate hike delay Published: 17/04/2015 at 07:59 AM Newspaper section: Business The Stock Exchange of Thailand surged 1.43%, propelled by a buying spree of big-cap energy and petrochemical shares after oil traded close to its highest price this year. Rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve will delay raising its interest rate on dour industrial data also improves investors' risk appetite. The SET index was among the Asean's biggest gainers yesterday, adding 22.17 points in single day to close at the day's high of 1,570. Turnover was brisk at 50.1 billion baht. National oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc (PTT) advanced 21 baht to 355, PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) jumped eight baht to 122, PTT Global Chemical Plc (PTTGC) soared 2.50 baht to 59, Thai Oil Plc (TOP) rose four baht to 58.50 and Bangchak Petroleum Plc (BCP) gained 1.50 baht to 35.25. Foreign investors bought 3.91 billion baht more than they sold yesterday. Institutional investors and brokers joined the foreigners by buying with a net position of 1 billion each. Retail investors alone yanked 5.92 billion baht out of the stock market. Oil traded near the highest price this year amid speculation that a slowdown in the US shale oil boom will ease the biggest supply glut since 1930. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose US$3.10 to $56.39 on Wednesday, the highest close since last December. "Energy and petrochemical shares pick up as investors are seeking arbitrage on short- and long-term oil futures contracts," said Kriengkrai Tumnutud, head strategist at AEC Securities. An almost 30% gap between oil futures of one-month and one-year contracts has tempted investors to make arbitrage and this could add to a sign that oil price has bottomed out. The SET rally led by energy stocks was last seen in 2008, when its gap was at $20, he said. Short and medium-term investors are recommended to add oil-related stocks in their investment portfolio. The SET index's run would continue to be buoyed by the rising energy share prices until oil price reaches $60-65 a barrel as expected this quarter, he said, adding that a near-term target for the Thai shares was 1,570 to 1,600 points, but the wild swing was expected to remain persistent. Energy shares have been laggards with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio at a mere 1-1.3 and it has upside gain of about 30% to trade at the same P/B level as in the past five years. Southeast Asian bourses, which weighted heavily by energy stocks, will turn back to outshine other peers, he said. Capital Nomura Securities said in a note that the International Monetary Fund's recently upward revision of Thai economic growth forecast to 3.7% this year from 3.5% also bolstered market sentiment. This is further boosted by expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will further ease monetary policy to make the economic momentum gain traction. The next policy rate call is scheduled for April 29. Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/530967/set-gains-on-oil-price-rise-fed-likely-rate-hike-delay. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 18:39:36 GMT 7
I know nothing about the SET but that banner with the 100 dollar bill split by the mango rocks.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 20, 2015 18:47:49 GMT 7
In it's Daily Navigator today, KGI, sees an agitated market, near term. The fall of western markets last week, on worries over Greece and its debts, and this may lead to profit taking, while prices currently look at high levels. The banks' Q1 profits look a bit lack lustre too, which is something of a reflection of the wider economy. On the plus side they see positive interest from foreigners buying into Thailand, especially on oil stocks. From a chartistic perspective, they think if SET can hold above 1550, any corrections would be short lived, and the market a buy. research.kgieworld.co.th/recom.nsf/0/A4B2CADAC7F9ADCC47257E2A0036282C/$file/Daily_2015_04_20_e_th.pdf
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 20, 2015 18:54:46 GMT 7
One of my hobbies is trading SET50 options. For my current position, I'm comfortable and profitable if the market doesn't drop more than 15% from here, or doesn't rise more than 6% before June. That's to say I see more risks to the downside, than potential on the upside. Cheers Fletch
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 20, 2015 20:47:07 GMT 7
I'm playing a similar game with S&P futures but more symmetrical...June seems too short to collect much premium though, depending on when you sold...paying for some good wine and cheese etc...
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Apr 21, 2015 8:45:32 GMT 7
I am of the opinion that these are the 'dog days'' for the SET and indeed markets worldwide
The winter of discontent is not to faraway,tread carefully with ones investments.
S.E.T. is the acronym for Stock Exchange of Thailand.Also known by its alternative name. T.K.T.C. The Klong Toey Casino.
Sett refers to a badgers home or den
I published the definitions SET and sett to clatrify matters as being homophones confusion could arise
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 13:53:26 GMT 7
KGI attributed yesterdays' close -0.4% on the day to last minute buying in banks. Earlier it had been down 0.7%. Following 2 days of profit-taking, they're expecting selling forces to subside. Given the fact US and Europe closed nicely up yesterday, I'd tend to agree That and the fact that the morning session closed up and predictions are always best made with hindsight, as Naam regularly instructs his minions They advise buying on strength, and if it can hold above 1,562 it may test 1,580 research.kgieworld.co.th/recom.nsf/0/F1BFCCC18E3A2EB147257E2E0002189F/$file/Daily_2015_04_21_e_th.pdfCheers Fletch
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 13:59:53 GMT 7
For brief summaries on the Thai market, I also like Phillip's research's commentaries. Their POEMS articles aren't always written in the iambic pentameter which would have delighted my English literature teachers, but are a decent quick read each day and to the point. (Phillip's Online Electronic...) datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/come.pdfwww.poems.in.th/home/en/index.htmAccording to them The market would trade roughly flat as the upward momentum in energy stocks seems to lose steam after oil price held firm following the sharp bounce. Meanwhile, the banks are expected to report rather roughly flat results in the first quarter. The SET today appears to track the strength in overseas markets but gains appears limited as the euphoria from Chinese stimulus measure has faded. Foreign buying has been waning out as well while institutional investors would continue their selling forces after dumping both equities and futures yesterday. Buying interest from institutional investor was the major market driver since the SET hovered around 1500 points. Trading rage is expected between 1555 and 1570 points today. Cheers Fletch
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 14:31:26 GMT 7
I am of the opinion that these are the 'dog days'' for the SET and indeed markets worldwide The winter of discontent is not to faraway,tread carefully with ones investments. S.E.T. is the acronym for Stock Exchange of Thailand.Also known by its alternative name. T.K.T.C. The Klong Toey Casino.
Sett refers to a badgers home or den
I published the definitions SET and sett to clatrify matters as being homophones confusion could ariseBTW Do I take it from your spelling of "sett" with a double "tt" that you like to spend time with two badgers at the same?
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Apr 21, 2015 15:46:59 GMT 7
Not badgers.
But I once spent a few interesting hours with three young coyotes and some more of their friends in a short time hotel just off of soi 22.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2015 16:00:15 GMT 7
Let us keep on topic Gents
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Apr 21, 2015 16:27:20 GMT 7
Gents!! I was the only gent there. However agree with your quoted comment. No yellow card warning just this image below!!!!! Attachment Deleted
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 18:31:03 GMT 7
Not badgers. But I once spent a few interesting hours with three young coyotes and some more of their friends in a short time hotel just off of soi 22. Looks like you got a nice sized bath tub in that hotel room. Neighbours sounded a bit noisy with that music though
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 22, 2015 14:21:02 GMT 7
KTAM thinks the SET may reach 1680 this year. I reckon that's possible but not until H2 if it happens. They're also launching a small and medium cap fund as they see smaller companies having good growth potential. While I'd agree with the growth potential, 3 things would make me nervous on that: 1) They haven't mentioned valuation, and how fairly valued or not the smaller companies market is. While the may indeed grow at that rate, there's already a lot of good news built in. MAI for example trades on a P/E of around 76 at the moment, which is high by any standards. MAI has also had a good run in the last 5 years, beating the SET comfortably 2) fund management houses have a habit of launching new funds when they are popular, which is often after the event. this happened with many BRIC funds a few years back 3) many stock markets globally are hitting new highs, and looking overvalued despite the global economy difficulties, and there's a lot of problems globally not been addressed yet. When global corrections hit, stronger large company blue chips often fair better So while I agree the longer term potential is there, shorter term might pay to be more cautious, but worth a thought or two... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- KTAM chases small- and mid-cap growth Published: 22/04/2015 at 06:00 AM Newspaper section: Business Krungthai Asset Management (KTAM) sees listed small- and medium-cap stocks enjoying earnings growth of 20-30% over the next three to five years. To capture the growth opportunity, the company yesterday launched the Krung Thai Mid-Small Cap Equity Fund (KTMSEQ) with a policy of investing in Thai-listed small- and medium-cap stocks at 80% of net asset value and large-cap stocks and derivatives for the rest. Chief executive Chavinda Hanratanakool said the fund would pick 20-30 stocks from a total selection of about 200 companies. Some 30% of stocks in the new fund's portfolio will come from those listed on the Market for Alternative Investment. The return on small- and medium-cap stocks in the past five years was 130.2%, outperforming the SET50 index's 78.7%. "And we've found that small- and medium-cap stocks perform better than the benchmark market during periods of economic recovery," Mrs Chavinda said. "We're now in the stage of economic rebound." The new fund will splash money into sectors benefiting from the government's economic measures such as building materials, construction, property and nanofinance. Mrs Chavinda recommends investors put money into the fund for three to five years for a higher return. The fund's initial public offering runs until April 29. KTAM expects the SET index will reach 1,680 points this year as the economic recovery gains steam, driven by investment, consumption and public spending on infrastructure. The company plans to launch three global equity trigger funds in the coming months. The first is an Asia excluding Japan fund to be offered next month, followed by an East Asian fund in June and a Chinese fund in July. Also in the pipeline are three real estate investment trusts worth a combined 7 billion baht that will invest in hotels, office buildings and shopping centres. www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/536547/ktam-chases-small-and-mid-cap-growth
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