4 views on the SET for 2017
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SET risks and rewards
Experts weigh in on the headwinds and tailwinds facing the Thai bourse this year after a topsy-turvy but productive 2016.

Local stocks remain a favourite investment asset class for securities analysts and mutual fund managers surveyed by the Bangkok Post. This, despite the fact that gains on the stock market this year will be lower than in 2016, as there is less room left for the market to rise and threats of uncertainties, external ones in particular.

RHB-OSK Securities

Thanadech Rungsrithananon, senior vice-president of research

"The SET index could hit 1,632 points in 2017, based on a five-year average P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 17 times and earning growth of 12%, as well as earnings per share (EPS) of 96 baht," says Mr Thanadech.

....

SCB Securities (SCBS)

Pornthep Jubandhu, senior vice-president for investment strategy

"The three big themes for 2017 are the global economic rebound, rising inflation and interest rate hikes. Hence, returns from risky assets including equities are set to beat those from fixed income. For commodities, oil will outpace gold," says Mr Pornthep.

...

SCB Securities is optimistic that the SET index will likely reach 1,700 points.

BBL Asset Management

Peerapong Jirasevijinda, managing director and chief investment officer

BBLAM, which had 627 billion baht worth of assets under management (AUM) as of December, recommends a greater asset allocation toward stocks than bonds.

"Equity is expected to give better returns than bonds, so we recommend giving more weight to equity," says Mr Peerapong.

....

CIMB-Principal Asset Management

Win Phromphaet, chief investment officer

The four investment themes for the year 2017 are infrastructure, property investment, dividend stocks and technology, says Mr Win.

Property-related investment is also recommended, as it can generate recurring income.

Even though the US interest rate is in an upward trend, the pace of increase is not expected to register a sharp spike and other major countries will still keep their policy rates at the rock-bottom level, Mr Win says, noting that returns from property investments are still attractive.

CIMB-Principal forecast that the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee will keep its 1.5% rate on hold until at least the second half of 2017.

"The IRR (internal rate of return) of global REITs (real estate investment trusts) is expected at 6-7%, 5 percentage points above global government bonds, which are at 1-2%," he says.

According to his team's model, which traces back data for 10 years, dividend plays give better returns with lower volatility related to the SET100 index.

Mr Win projects that the SET index will reach 1,600 points this year,...

more...

www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1185237/set-risks-and-rewards