Fletch actually went to this as a TMB customer but decided to keep his cock in his trousers.

Nice coffee, free bag, notepad and book but don't tell the digital pikeys.

First half was by 2 PIMCO guys in English global outlook and how the PIMCO GIS Income a fixed income fund was run against this backdrop. TMBAM has a feeder fund into PIMCO GIS Income. Not mega interesting really but highlights the increasing choices available in Thailand. Still obviously lags offshore choices but worth considering if building a Thai only onshore portfolio. They reckoned it could yield about 4% in 2017 and with gains perhaps a total return of 6%. Seemed a bit optimistic on the gains, but 4% yield seemed reasonable

Second part was all in Thai about asset allocation. Two things of interest, although no new, but just someone else having done the stats:

1) Importance of a long term outlook:

Using data for calendar years 1999-2016, someone investing in the Thai equity index

a) Someone with a 1 year horizon would have lost money 33% of the time, with a max 1 year loss of 44%

b) Someone with a 3 year time horizon would have lost money 25% of the time, with a max loss of 10%

c) Someone with a 6 year time horizon would not have lost money in any of the 6 year calendar year periods with the worst gain (not loss) being 3%

The average return in all 3 cases was 12.6% p.a. over these 18 calendar years.

Reinforces what we've always said: there are nice gains to be made in the Thai equity market if you are prepared to look long term and ride out the good and bad. You shouldn't normally be investing in equity mutual fund for only 1 year anyway

2) They suggested how an investor could diversify risk with specific fund recommendations:

- TMBAM Jumbo 25 mutual fund - Thai large cap equities
- TMBAM 1m and 6m fixed interest/ money market funds - Thai fixed interest funds
- TMBAM feeder into PIMCO GIS Income Fund - International Fixed Income
- TMBAM feeder into Wellington - International equities
- TMB Property Income Plus Fund

Sure it could be improved on, and sure there are more choices at lower cost offshore, but it would be a reasonable core start for someone wanting to build a portfolio onshore in Thailand

Good to see that Thailand choices are covering the basics

Always worth bearing in mind inflation

The average core inflation rate over this period is more like 2%. For the worst six years of stock market returns it was probably a bit lower.

www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-inflation-rate

So yes possible a small loss in real inflation adjusted terms - small single digit %  - 15% is probably too high

Let's not forget the key points though:

- the worst 6 year period still returned more than just sitting on cash, just a bit under inflation.

- the average was 12.6% p.a. well above that 2% inflation rate.

- if you assume the glass is half full though, and look for the best period, that would have been an average of over 20% p.a. for 6 years, significantly well above inflation

BTW 6 years seemed a bit cherry picked to me, but they explained as being around the length of a business cycle. If they'd chosen 5 years which is more usual there is actually a negative period.

1yr, 3yr, 5 yr 10yr is more normal so it struck me straight away. The principal train of thought is OK though. Given the audience there were quite a few places they over simplified things.

Chinese horoscope says 2017 is not a good year for those born in the year of the rooster - ............."fortune in all aspects of your life will not be very good".............

Well it can't be any worse than 2015 was for me, or last year for that matter.