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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 28, 2015 13:17:10 GMT 7
Ministry cuts 2015 forecast for exports
Published: 28/04/2015 at 08:06 AM Newspaper section: Business First-quarter exports fell by 4% year-on-year, prompting the Commerce Ministry to revise down its full-year forecast from 4% growth made earlier. Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said reports indicated export performance remained in the red last month, with a drop of 4% year-on-year due mainly to falling rubber and oil prices, leading the figures in the first quarter to contract by 4% too. Official figures covering March's performance and new export forecasts will be released today by the ministry, he said. Last week, Gen Chatchai said his ministry might cut its full-year growth target for shipments to 1% from an earlier 4% forecast due mainly to the global economic slowdown and falling oil prices. "We hopefully expect shipments to recover after the first quarter," he said. "Based on the figures in March, we see the contraction is now lower than in February, when shipments dropped by 6.14% year-on-year to US$17.2 billion." Gen Chatchai said export performance was expected to recover in the second and third quarters, citing stabilised oil prices, while the government was committed to driving exports and expanding export destinations. Authorities will unveil new export stimulus measures next month and commence them in June, he said. Nopporn Thepsittha, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the 4% contraction in exports in the first quarter came as no surprise, as shippers themselves recently predicted exports would drop by 4-5% for the period. "The first three months were the worst period for exports due to falling global oil prices, which affected shipments of refined petroleum and related products such as chemicals and plastic pellets," he said. "But we're bullish that exports will gradually improve and are likely to see flat growth in the third quarter." In a related development, the Commerce Ministry yesterday kicked off an initiative under which large, experienced companies function as mentors to small enterprises to help them gain more exports. Under the "Elder Brothers/Sisters Lead the Younger Ones by the Hand" scheme, major firms such as Charoen Pokphand Group, Central Group, Saha Group, Thai Beverage and Loxley have agreed to become more involved in helping smaller operators to expand their export markets. Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/543439/ministry-cuts-2015-forecast-for-exports. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Apr 28, 2015 16:59:48 GMT 7
To my mind there is an indication of a slowing economy, the baht is overvalued and thus the export market is being taken by countries with weaker currencies.
Inward looking self protectionist policies are slowly eroding the export market away too. Those items described so far linked with outdated industrial practices and in many cases poor quality are all nasty angry birds now coming home to roost.
Falling oil prices should have a positive affect for the export industries here, the problems are with mismanagement and quality plus delivery dates. Combine that with a poorly motivated and uneducated workforce and the problems are starting to grow rather too big to contain.
The ideas of throwing money at the situation is not going to work.Thai industry is getting a wake up call.Wake up, shape up. Hey folks remember ASEAN is just around the corner and you've missed your early morning call for that event by oversleeping for the last eighteen years
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 29, 2015 10:14:18 GMT 7
Yes I agree exports are very important to the Thai economy. Tourism also. Both of which are impacted by the exchange rate.
For whether THB is overvalued or not I think it depends on the currency. Personally, I think:
- USD has had a good run and there's room for THB to strengthen there, i.e THB undervalued, simply because I think USD is starting to become overvalued
- GBP think both countries have issues, but I don't see THB as overvalued
- vs Asian currencies in the last year or so THB has strengthened so maybe a bit overvalued there
ASEAN will be an interesting one, as I think most of the countries - probably with the exception of Singapore - really haven't done much. Probably talked a fair bit, but not actually done that much.
Thailand has quite a few issues need sorting out. Fortunately for Thailand though, is many of the countries in the region are even worse on these scores.
Unfortunately for Thailand though it will have more and more of an issue in the future in getting squeezed in the middle: no longer a cheap labour force, and losing ground to Indo, Vietnam etc on cost. But can't compete with Singapore when it comes to knowledge base/ adding value at the other end. Throw in an ageing population which starts licking in particularly from 2020 onwards, and there's a lot of work to be done.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Apr 29, 2015 10:18:51 GMT 7
Pound sterling going well at the moment.
Wonder what affect the upcoming general elections may have on sterling though?
1 GBP = 50.1026 THB 1 THB = 0.0199590 GBP.
As at 10:19 hrs local time today.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 29, 2015 10:20:58 GMT 7
More news on the economy. Seems as ever the government and analysts are catching up with events and revising export forecasts down. Now doubt by Janauary 2016 their predictions for December 2015 will be accurate  ----------------------------- Weak March spurs cut in export view
Government now sees 1.2% full-year growth 29 Apr 2015 at 03:30 5 NEWSPAPER SECTION: BUSINESS WRITER: PHUSADEE ARUNMAS Cargo containers are loaded... The government has slashed its full-year export forecast to 1.2% growth against 4% projected earlier after exports shrank for a third straight month in March. The Commerce Ministry yesterday said exports fell by 4.45% year-on-year last month to US$18.9 billion. Farm exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year to $2.95 billion, dragged down by rubber, canned tuna and rice. Industrial product exports fell by 3.2% to $14.9 billion, with weak shipments of oil and related products such as chemicals and plastic pellets as well as gold. For the first three months, exports totalled $53.4 billion, down by 4.69% from the year-earlier period. Commerce permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara said Thai exports in the period faced a spate of negative factors related to foreign exchange, falling global farm prices, a rise in non-tariff barriers by several importing countries, unrest in North Africa and self-sufficiency policies launched by several Middle East countries. "Against all odds, we started seeing improving signs of the overall prospects of Thai exports in March," Ms Chutima said. "Our market share in many countries remained steady and unabated." The Commerce Ministry said imports were down by 5.89% year-on-year last month at $17.4 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $1.49 billion. For the three-month period, imports totalled $51.9 billion, down by 6.43%, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.42 billion. Nuntawan Sa<munt>anaga, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the Commerce Ministry had cut its full-year export target to $230 billion. "The global economic situation has changed, so the ministry has adjusted its forecast accordingly under the assumption of crude oil averaging $70 a barrel and the baht standing at 32.60 to 33.40 to the US dollar," she said. "Export performance this year will be based largely on the global economy and foreign exchange but also non-tariff barriers by importing countries that deserve a close monitoring." Ms Nuntawan still believes exports will manage 0.5% to 1% growth this year. Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said last month's lower contraction was at least a promising sign that exports could manage a gradual recovery in the coming months and full-year growth of 1%. "Given the world's slower-than-expected economic recovery and the baht appreciation, which makes Thai exports less competitive, Thailand must weigh up its focus on neighbouring countries, particularly Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, southern China and India," Mr Isara said. "The private sector is also gravely concerned about growing non-tariff barriers such as food safety standards by importing countries." Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/544915/weak-march-spurs-cut-in-export-view. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 29, 2015 10:24:40 GMT 7
Pound sterling going well at the moment. Wonder what affect the upcoming general elections may have on sterling though? 1 GBP = 50.1026 THB 1 THB = 0.0199590 GBP.
As at 10:19 hrs local time today.
UK economy isn't in a great place either.... Conservatives asking to vote them in so they can "continue to fix" things Labour asking to vote them in so they can "fix the Conservative's poor track record" same same old arguments ------------------------------ British growth slows sharply on eve of election28 Apr 2015 at 16:45 587 WRITER: AFP LONDON - The British economy gre far more slowly than expected in the first quarter of 2015, official data showed Tuesday, delivering a blow to the government just nine days before a general election. Growth in Britain slowed sharply to 0.3% in the first quarter. Gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% between January and March compared with GDP growth of 0.6% in the final quarter of 2014, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in an initial estimate. Analysts' consensus had been for a slowdown in growth to only 0.5% in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg News. GDP, the main indicator of economic growth, is the last major piece of data on the British economy before Britain votes in a knife-edge general election on May 7. The ONS said that while output increased in services by 0.5% in the first quarter, the other three main industrial groupings in the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 29, 2015 15:11:44 GMT 7
I reckon Bank of Thailand have been reading your posts on BigMango Siampolee, spurring them to cut interest rates and try and weaken the baht a bit, as well as boost the economy. Your next post in big blue numbers will probably show more baht for the pound |
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Apr 30, 2015 8:14:51 GMT 7
Yesterday I was sat in the GSB while Sopha was doing something there, and watching the exchange rate. They only had the notes rate. However it was at 48.87 to the pound, then on the next turn it was 49.23. I figures the export news was behind this. At visa time this is music to my ears.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 30, 2015 15:19:25 GMT 7
Yesterday I was sat in the GSB while Sopha was doing something there, and watching the exchange rate. They only had the notes rate. However it was at 48.87 to the pound, then on the next turn it was 49.23. I figures the export news was behind this. At visa time this is music to my ears. Yes must have been nice to watch. Speaking of visas, I did my extension this morning. It's always one of the least pleasurable experiences in Thailand, and today was one of those days they had some pedantic issues with my application, which wasted an extra 2 and half hours on top of the usual hour or so. The lady in question had an attitude of like well what else would you be doing today? isn't this what life is about? what could be more important than this? when I mentioned the extra time and said I'd got work to do she still didn't get it. So I told her I'd like to improve the Thai economy, and perhaps that's why they have issues Her reply was to turn to my wife and ask does he complain like this at home too? Then to me: Why don't you go and live back in England? Makes you wonder if they didn't waste people's time like this what the economy might look like. I also did 90 days reporting last week, visa extension today, and then go back in 1 month to complete the extension and get a re-entry permit - each time wastes half a day. These of course all after Songkran and around tomorrow's upcoming Fri-Tue 5 day holiday. April and May will be lower output months because of the holidays, and throw in the bureaucrats it's all little surprise really Cheers Fletch |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 30, 2015 15:22:06 GMT 7
Fiscal policy office are the latest to revise down GDP forecasts. Q1 has been bad, and looks like many people are writing of first half already, and hoping for a good second half ---------------- FPO cuts GDP view to 3.7%Published: 30/04/2015 at 03:30 AM Newspaper section: Business The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has cut its forecast for Thai economic growth this year to 3.7% from 3.9% after its export projection was trimmed to almost zero growth. Even though the Finance Ministry's think tank slashed its shipment projection to 0.2% this year from 1.4% in January, an increase in tourism could help partly offset the bleak outlook, said Krisada Chinavicharana, director-general of the FPO. The central bank's Monetary Policy Commission trimmed its forecasts for GDP and exports to 3.8% and 0.8%, then surprisingly cut the benchmark rate by a quarter-point for the second straight meeting. The central bank's new forecasts will be announced on June 19. The rate cut came one day after the Commerce Ministry announced worse than expected exports, which fell 4.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. Mr Krisada said tourism would play a greater role in driving economic growth. Preliminary data showed tourist arrivals to Thailand surged 25.5% year-on-year to 2.55 million in March, and jumped 21.6% during the first 18 days of April to 1.43 million. The FPO forecast 29.4 million tourists will visit Thailand this year, up 18.6% from 2015, with tourism revenue gaining 21.1% to 1.389 trillion baht. In 2014 tourist arrivals contracted 6.7% and tourism revenue declined 4.9%. Public spending is also expected to drive economic growth. The FPO estimated state investment will expand 9.5% this year and government expenditures increase 4.3% because of expedited budget disbursement. Around 70% of the 499-billion-baht investment budget is expected to be drawn down this fiscal year, ending Sept 30. Disbursement of the 77-billion-baht budget earmarked for highway repairs, water management projects and transport infrastructure projects is expected to start this fiscal year, ramping up the economic recovery, he said. The FPO forecast 2.24 billion of the 77 billion baht will be taken out this fiscal year. Kulaya Tantitemit, executive director of the Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, said the FPO slightly trimmed the 2015 GDP forecast of Thailand's 15 major trade counterparts to 3.76% from 3.8% after slimming China's GDP growth to 7% from 7.2%. The baht is estimated to average 33.10 to the dollar this year, 1.9% weaker than last year but up 7.6% compared with its 15 biggest trade partners. Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/546155/fpo-cuts-gdp-view-to-3-7. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved. |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Apr 30, 2015 16:58:16 GMT 7
Now apart from the higher level financial and economical juggling, what gets done to improve Thai industries, Thai products, Thai promotion in order to push export with a wee bit more than just 'a reasonable product for a reasonable price' ?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 30, 2015 17:50:21 GMT 7
Now apart from the higher level financial and economical juggling, what gets done to improve Thai industries, Thai products, Thai promotion in order to push export with a wee bit more than just 'a reasonable product for a reasonable price' ? Good question Probably the usual "NATO" responses. No Action Talk Only |
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Apr 30, 2015 20:32:42 GMT 7
Yesterday I was sat in the GSB while Sopha was doing something there, and watching the exchange rate. They only had the notes rate. However it was at 48.87 to the pound, then on the next turn it was 49.23. I figures the export news was behind this. At visa time this is music to my ears. Yes must have been nice to watch. Speaking of visas, I did my extension this morning. It's always one of the least pleasurable experiences in Thailand, and today was one of those days they had some pedantic issues with my application, which wasted an extra 2 and half hours on top of the usual hour or so. The lady in question had an attitude of like well what else would you be doing today? isn't this what life is about? what could be more important than this? when I mentioned the extra time and said I'd got work to do she still didn't get it. So I told her I'd like to improve the Thai economy, and perhaps that's why they have issues Her reply was to turn to my wife and ask does he complain like this at home too? Then to me: Why don't you go and live back in England? Makes you wonder if they didn't waste people's time like this what the economy might look like. I also did 90 days reporting last week, visa extension today, and then go back in 1 month to complete the extension and get a re-entry permit - each time wastes half a day. These of course all after Songkran and around tomorrow's upcoming Fri-Tue 5 day holiday. April and May will be lower output months because of the holidays, and throw in the bureaucrats it's all little surprise really Cheers Fletch Penang looks so much the better option to me. 15 months, let the GH deal with it, great street food, and my wife only gets 30 days v my 90. 555 |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 18:57:55 GMT 7
Another view of Thailand's growth revised downwards again. I've often thought I'd like to be an economist. Keep changing your guesses until the results come in. No doubt they'll still be revising 2015 estimates for the Thai economy in January 2016. =============================================================================================== BoT slices growth outlook to 3%20 Jun 2015 at 06:17 Bangkok Post NEWSPAPER SECTION: BUSINESS | WRITER: PATHOM SANGWONGWANICH The Bank of Thailand has slashed its economic growth forecast for this year to 3%, saying export growth has slowed, private consumption remains tepid, and private investment is weak. "Thailand’s economy is likely to grow less than the previous projection, and risks are tilted towards the downside," said Mathee Supapongse, assistant governor of the monetary policy group and the Monetary Policy Committee’s secretary. Although public expenditure has been better than expected, especially for public investment projects, and tourism continues to expand, these factors cannot compensate dismal exports and private spending, he said. It is the fourth cut to the 2015 growth forecast by the central bank. Last June, it projected growth of 5.5% before cutting that to 4.8% in September, 4% in January and 3.8% in March. The latest prediction barely falls within the National Economic and Social Development Board's 3-4% forecast but is well below the Finance Ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office projection of 3.7%. Exports are expected to contract by 1.5% this year, down from an 0.8% growth projection, due to structural problems associated with Thai shipments and a slowdown in Thailand’s major trading partners, Mr Mathee said. But he said a weaker baht should support export value, while an increase in commodity prices in line with rising global oil prices could jump-start a recovery. If Thailand's shipments contract, it will be the third consecutive year. The Commerce Ministry reported the value of exports, which account for 60-70% of GDP, fell for the fourth month running in April, down by 1.7% year-on-year, while the four-month figure was down by 3.99% year-on-year. Mr Mathee said the private consumption forecast was cut to 2% from 2.4% as household income excluding the agricultural sector has been affected by Thailand’s sluggish economy. The ongoing drought also factored into the central bank’s assessment to a certain degree. Business confidence is also hurting, delaying private investment incentives, although government spending should help in stimulating private investment related to public investment projects, Mr Mathee said. Annual private investment growth is forecast at 2.7%, down from a projection of 3.1%. He said downside risks to economic growth included slower growth in Asia, particularly China, and lower public spending constrained by ineffective investment budget disbursement. Annual headline inflation should decline by 0.5% as fresh food and retail oil prices dip domestically. Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/597884/bot-slices-growth-outlook-to-3. View our policies at goo.gl/9HgTd and goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved. |
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