AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 19, 2020 6:21:56 GMT 7
^^^, , reminds me of the subprime crisis from the good ole us of a about 2008, Fanny mae and freddy mac, was anyone ever jailed over that? The subprime crisis wasn't the fault of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. In fact, the proportion of mortgages they provided fell in the run up to the crisis. They covered conventional mortgages. It was alternative providers such as hedge funds which lent in the subprime market (e.g. to illegal immigrants and the poor) that caused the problem. It's only after the crisis started to develop that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac stepped in (under huge political pressure) to back the subprime market in an attempt to avoid a crash. And AFAIK nobody was jailed since no crime had been committed, just spectacular failures of judgement driven by greed and myopia.
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rubl
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The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Dec 19, 2020 9:18:11 GMT 7
^^| and guess who's still paying the bills
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 21, 2020 6:09:10 GMT 7
Thailand and Brexit: Ordinarily, I might have formed a view on this but the picture seems confused, as demonstrated by two articles in the same paper on the same day saying opposite things: "Brexit to have no impact on Thailand". "No-deal Brexit could hit Thai trade: experts". www.nationthailand.com/business/30399871?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referralOn balance I've decided to go with the second one because it includes the word "expert" which is always reassuring.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 21, 2020 20:39:36 GMT 7
Thailand and Brexit: Ordinarily, I might have formed a view on this but the picture seems confused, as demonstrated by two articles in the same paper on the same day saying opposite things: "Brexit to have no impact on Thailand". "No-deal Brexit could hit Thai trade: experts". www.nationthailand.com/business/30399871?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referralOn balance I've decided to go with the second one because it includes the word "expert" which is always reassuring. Think thats a misspelling old chap, should be exports, .
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 28, 2020 10:00:11 GMT 7
The fall in the current account surplus looks like it might be shortlived, plus, it's difficult to imagine the US wanting a strong Dollar at this point. All of which suggests to me that THB is going to remain strong. "The nation’s current-account surplus has provided a buffer for the baht as the economy reels from the slump in tourism and trade. A report due Wednesday is forecast to show the excess narrowed to $610 million in November from $985 million the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The surplus may get a boost when Covid-19 vaccines come online as a resumption in travel lifts Thailand’s tourism sector. The dollar’s direction is also key for the baht". www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-27/baht-s-rally-stalls-as-thailand-battles-virus-pandemic-fallout
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 29, 2020 5:13:20 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 1, 2021 17:57:07 GMT 7
"Thailand recorded a current account deficit of $1.5 billion in November after a surplus of $0.99 billion the previous month, the Bank of Thailand said on Wednesday.
Exports, a key driver of growth, dropped 3.1% in November from a year earlier after October's 5.6% decline".
It's not often we see a deficit here, that should help weaken THB.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 5, 2021 7:08:24 GMT 7
US markets have fallen because there is an increased risk that the Democrats may gain control of the House and the Senate, if that happens the US economic environment will become less equity friendly, even to the point of risk-off......we'll know the answer in a day or so. But, IF the Dems. do take control of the Senate, markets will fall and the Thai SET will fall along with them, especially given the recent surge of covid19 cases which will further limit economic recovery which has already seen capital inflows reduced to low levels. All things being equal THB will weaken as a result and indeed it will need to in order to support exports. Who would have thought that the election of a Senator in Georgia USA will have an impact on how many cans of Archa the impoverished Western expats will be able to buy this year!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 6, 2021 9:33:41 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 6, 2021 21:02:15 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 8, 2021 5:30:26 GMT 7
The Dems won the Senate and the Nasdaq even gained as a result, the opposite of what should have happened, how does that work! Perhaps the storming of the Capitol has now resulted in some political unity and that's seen as positive? Dunno.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 9, 2021 20:20:46 GMT 7
The Dems won the Senate and the Nasdaq even gained as a result, the opposite of what should have happened, how does that work! Perhaps the storming of the Capitol has now resulted in some political unity and that's seen as positive? Dunno. In fact the answer is simple: "Markets have reacted quickly to expectations that government spending will rise since Democrats won the Georgia elections, with stock indexes rising and the interest investors demand on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds climbing to their highest levels since March". Control of the senate and the house means the Dems. have all the control they need (in theory) to enact whatever financial support measures etc. they wish and are not constrained by a Republican controlled Senate. www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-economy/biden-to-unveil-trillions-in-pandemic-economic-relief-spending-next-week-idUSKBN29D2PQ
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 11, 2021 6:13:34 GMT 7
The price of oil is on the increase, different regions of the world are subject to different pricing and the price to Asia has now increased yet again, you may have noticed the effect on pump prices. But Thailand is a net importer of oil so the value of their imports will increase as a result, that should narrow the trade surplus and weigh more heavily on the THB exchange rate.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jan 11, 2021 20:07:27 GMT 7
^^^, , Uncle Sam turning on the printing presses to churn out more worthless pieces of paper, the markets love free money, the dollar and ergo the pommie peso are heading lower, watch this space.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 23, 2021 4:35:18 GMT 7
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