Going to be interesting to see how the ''bricklayer cum P.M. and finance minister deals with this upcoming issue. Could always call in sick I suppose.   

What may prove to be fuel for the fire is the possibility of a shutdown of US government funds which according to assorted reports the (Trump camp) Republicans are pushing for and using as a weapon to force the withdrawal of all the indictments etc. that Trump and his cronies are facing plus an attempt to impeach Biden, however I think that those two causes are going to fall at the last fence, time alone will tell.

The man is a demented egotistic Narcissus, the same goes for his slavering followers, but wounded animals in their death throes thrashing around can do untold damage.

A weak Pound will be costly for the UK economy, they have massive debt that must be serviced plus the price of oil is forever marching upwards. Those things will in turn lead to renewed price inflation so no, the BOE is not done raising rates, even if markets think they are. Markets here and across the pond are not very good at dealing with reality, there's a lot of wishful thinking in both. But both places have the edge over Thailand where rates are still very low and government wants to borrow much more. The natural consequence of low rates and increased borrowings is a weaker currency and increased inflation, Western countries have amply demonstrated that. Reducing the price of diesel helps control supply costs but given the widespread use of diesel transportation for non business purposes, that move will be costly and represents more debt that must be repaid - in January the Fuel Subsidy Fund was B120 bill in debt, with the recent lowering of the price cap, that fund could easily hit -150 bill by Xmas. This is nothing more than a transfer of debt from the consumer to the government and ultimately in time, back to the consumer again. Most of  the governments' economic measures seem aimed at protecting the rural poor and the high levels of consumer debt. If the poor can't repay those debts, the banking system is at risk. If the poor aren't kept a little bit happy, social unrest will follow. Higher interest rates may be what inflation needs but the downside here is so great as to make that almost impossible.....there will be a price to pay for that in the future, I think.

Government Price caps on 20 food staples have been tried several times before, during covid there were caps on 51 food items which had to be increased eventually. But the whole concept of price caps on food doesn't work well, "From Argentina and Venezuela to Russia, China and Thailand, governments are addressing the challenge of rising food prices by imposing price controls. By fixing prices below market levels, they hope to ease the burden on their citizens and avoid social unrest. But evidence from past crises shows that such measures do not reverse price trends and may end up having the opposite effect, say international economists, who advocate aid for the poor instead. "From Argentina and Venezuela to Russia, China and Thailand, governments are addressing the challenge of rising food prices by imposing price controls. International economists warn that price controls and other interventions lead to market distortions like reduced supplies, smuggling and two tier markets because they discourage domestic production, processing and trade. By dampening the underlying causes of inflation, price controls prevent market solutions, these experts say. Already, some countries are finding this to be true". www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/business/worldbusiness/07iht-controls.4.11735373.html

A weakened Baht does NOT encourage greater levels of exports, several BOT studies have demonstrated that there is no relationship between export levels and the value of the currency. The value of exports is solely down to one thing, the buying power and demand from the buying country. All that leaves is tourism and the hope that increased Chinese tourism will save the day. Given that the Chinese economy is in such poor shape, it's difficult to imagine why it would, although perhaps the sheer size of the Chinese population is sufficient alone to tip the scales in Thailand's favour. Plus Thailand is historically excellent at creating new markets. It seems as though tourism is the only trick up the proverbial sleeve, it's a stop gap measure until exports and the importing country economies can recover. 

Lastly there's the weather, El Nino and reduced agricultural output, all those things point towards higher domestic prices and decreased output and exports, ouch! It's difficult to imagine how all of this might play out over say three or five years, but it's even harder to imagine a good outcome. 

Anecdotally, my wife' s business costs have increased 11% in the past year and she has now passed this along to customers by increasing her sales price. Only one customer has complained and sales are very similar to what they have been in September. The products my wife sells represents discretionary spending and her customers appear both willing and able to pay/spend more but most are older people and most are based in Bangkok. 

Because of the Fed's mantra, higher for longer, 10 year T'Bond yields are pushing higher, equities (valuations) will struggle and likely fall as a consequence. All of this suggests an even stronger USD, some forecast/guess USD/THB in excess of 37. That would be good for tourists and expats but bad for oil imports. Perhaps it's good to remember that nothing lasts forever so I wouldn't want to plan on 37 longer term.

Bloomberg's and others carry an interesting story about the gold price which has become disconnected from the historic equations that determine its price. Mostly this seems to be as a result of frantic buying by central banks globally but interestingly its relationship to USD value and US rates has changed. Is this a paradigm shift the article asks. More importantly, are old fiscal rules being replaced with new ones across the board and we don't understand yet what they are or that it is actually happening?

www.barrons.com/articles/10yr-treasury-yields-bond-c59a9389

finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-gold-buying-driving-paradigm-081235805.html

Oh my, a POTY award, it's so exciting. Er, but POTY was a urine take was it not......tell me you're not misbehaving!