siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Sept 29, 2023 17:44:11 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Sept 29, 2023 17:50:38 GMT 7
I expect the US may shut down parts of government after 1 October, perhaps some parts for many weeks. Eventually an agreement will be reached and it will be BAU once again, until the next time.
I expect this to happen to Thailand, never, even "third world" countries can get their sh*t togther better than the US.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Sept 29, 2023 19:00:34 GMT 7
I must confess to be an professional pessimist. if it all goes wrong that's it however if it doesn't it's a bonus. My view is that pessimism equates to reality.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Sept 30, 2023 13:26:47 GMT 7
An interesting read, which isn't really going to inspire confidence in the current government, nor its fiscal policies either...
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Sept 30, 2023 16:10:48 GMT 7
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Sept 30, 2023 17:47:50 GMT 7
Dedicated to the bricklayer and his hod carriers fiscal policies...
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 1, 2023 4:34:10 GMT 7
Some good news:
"US House passes bipartisan bill to avoid government shutdown"
As long as the Senate passes the bill and Biden signs it, there will be no government shutdown on Monday. If those things happen, equities should move higher and USD should fall.
In other good news:
"US crude production reached the second-highest level on record in July as output from Texas’s Permian Basin soared to an all-time high".
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 1, 2023 7:07:36 GMT 7
I must protest, this thread is about Thai fiscal matters.
References to the rantings and location(s), machinations, etc. concerning Donald Trump and his tribe should be made in a thread dedicated to it, and them...
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 1, 2023 9:13:19 GMT 7
These things are inextricably linked I'm afraid. The volume of (Oil) supply dictates price, which in turn controls the inflation spigot and interest rates. A low supply of oil means a high oil price, this begets higher inflation which in turn begets inflation and higher US interest rates. Higher US interest rates means weaker EM (in particular) currencies and weaker demand for overseas exports and expensive plane tickets used by foreign tourists. It also means higher price at the pumps which in turn puts the oil subsidy fund under stress and causes government to incur more debt.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 1, 2023 9:51:19 GMT 7
Perhaps it will be and is in truth the taxpayers who will and must foot the bill for the bricklayer and his hod carriers fiscal generosity to achieve their political aims.
One wonders will their ''dividend incomes'' be taxed?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 1, 2023 10:11:27 GMT 7
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 1, 2023 10:14:25 GMT 7
I can't find it now, but earlier this morning was saying the Baht's slide is expected to continue.
Remembering back to when the minimum wage was set to 300 Baht, the water sellers put 2 Baht on a 15 l water tank, and dropped one of the guys carrying the tanks from the pickups to the houses. I'm not sure the hikes are the right way to do it. No employer will absorb the losses, so the 400 Baht will just go on more expensive shopping.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 1, 2023 10:18:33 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 2, 2023 1:56:48 GMT 7
An excellent article that is free. A big ouch for EM in 2023: "The analysis found that while the sharp depreciations in most emerging market currencies have done nothing to boost exports, they have crimped imports because a depreciating currency makes imports more expensive. For every 1 per cent a currency depreciated against the US dollar, import volumes fell 0.5 per cent on average, the FT study found. Capital gushing out of emerging economies as currencies slump in value against the dollar and the expectation of a tightening in the Fed’s monetary policy, which is expected to make US dollar-denominated investments attractive relative to those in emerging markets. Total net capital outflows from the 19 largest emerging market economies reached $940bn in the 13 months to the end of July, almost double the net $480bn that flowed out over three quarters during the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to NN Investment Partners, an investment bank". www.ft.com/content/945c837e-4fc7-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 2, 2023 6:25:06 GMT 7
That's it then, the visa waiver program is a success already, 2.9 mill. Chinese will bring in Baht 140 bill. between now and year end. This contrasts with 2 million Chinese in the nine months to date and every newspaper in the world has proclaimed this to be true. If the estimates are correct and the numbers turn out to be 2.9 mill. +1, expect newspaper headlines that read, "Thailand tourism figures exceed all expectations" and someone to be knighted in the New Years honors list.
Soooo, Baht 140 bill will be spent and added to GDP, potentially, and to Consumer Spending and Consumption. That will increase the tax take from business, especially VAT, which, meams an extra Baht 10 bill or so (probably more like 5 bill will actually be declared) for government to spend on giveaways and price control.....not a lot really, is it. The lions share will go to big business, airlines and hotels, the trickle down to small business and then on to the consumer will not be huge. But jobs will have been preserved and people will be happier than the alternative, the need for further intervention by government will have been allayed.
But what will the extra income do for the value of THB? Dunno, the world could change hugely in three months and anyway, that new money is RMB not USD and RMB isn't doing particularly well right now. Income from Tourism is good for the masses but we need exports bills settled in USD for the Baht to strengthen meaningfully, we need Customs Exports that export stuff, rather than temporarily importing Chinese tourists.
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