chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 25, 2021 6:39:28 GMT 7
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jan 25, 2021 19:41:38 GMT 7
Bloomberg, . Thailand aint swimming in a sea of debt, Uncle Sam kicks the can down the road, pays off the interest each year and leaves future generations to pay off the capital, which will probably never be repaid.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 26, 2021 7:02:57 GMT 7
I hear ya, but that debt load is increasing and there's no good forecast for recovery yet so maybe this is a relative issue. When the debt load was under 50% of GDP it looked really healthy, now with an additional 1 trillion in borrowings it's close to the legislative seiling of 60%. And let's not forget that gov. borrowed over 600 bill Baht from BOT, AND, bond issuance is climbing by the day. When government was always running a budget surplus the borrowings were fine, now that they are increasingly operating budget deficits AND they have to finance covid recovery, the picture looks much less healthy.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Feb 22, 2021 8:53:09 GMT 7
An excellent article for those considering investment location chocies. "The emergence of Asia, led by China, as the economic power train of the post-Covid world has just entered another dimension: ESG dominance. The world’s second-largest economy and its Asian peers cornered 75 cents out of each dollar of capital invested in 2020 across emerging-market stocks compliant with environmental, social and governance norms, according to EPFR Global data. The balance is shifting further in the region’s favor this year, with its share growing to 83.33 cents per dollar". www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-22/esg-magnates-pour-money-in-asia-as-rest-of-developing-world-lags?srnd=premium-asia
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Feb 22, 2021 9:54:29 GMT 7
^^^ And yet 67% of China's electricity is generated from coal and gas. And massive dams such as the Three Gorges dam, and the proposed even larger one in Tibet are hardly environmentally friendly. Neither are the ones destroying the Mekong.
To me that suggests that the ESG criteria are not fit for purpose.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Feb 22, 2021 10:28:30 GMT 7
^^^ And yet 67% of China's electricity is generated from coal and gas. And massive dams such as the Three Gorges dam, and the proposed even larger one in Tibet are hardly environmentally friendly. Neither are the ones destroying the Mekong. To me that suggests that the ESG criteria are not fit for purpose. Blame Trump! "The U.S. Department of Labor released a new regulation in late October 2020 that may limit or eliminate socially responsible investing in retirement plans. While the rule was revised to remove explicit references to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors, it mandates that fiduciaries of retirement plans choose investment strategies based entirely on how those strategies affect financial performance. This ruling may have a significant impact on funds and investments classified under ESG and socially responsible investing". www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.aspWhether or not ESG's criteria is fit for purpose is not really relevant to the posting, the point is that Asia is the prefered destination, not the traditional investment havens.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 13, 2021 13:56:14 GMT 7
"The Finance Ministry, Bank of Thailand and commercial banks are working on a plan allowing cash-poor companies to temporarily park their assets with lenders in exchange for credit, and reclaim them within a specified period. The aim is to keep small businesses such as hotel operators from having to liquidate distressed assets at firesale prices or go out of business because of their debts. Thailand’s program is “very unique and effectively operates a bit like a pawn shop, where you place valuables in exchange for immediate cash,” said Khoon Goh, Singapore-based head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “I have not come across any other country coming up with something like that.” www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/thailand-plans-pawn-shop-style-rescue-for-hotels-hit-by-covid
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 13, 2021 19:32:57 GMT 7
When is the Baht hitting 80/£?
A couple more years and I'll have enough for the retirement quals...800000 Baht...then I can retire woo hooo!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 14, 2021 6:23:28 GMT 7
When is the Baht hitting 80/£? In the same year you next see one of these fly past your window.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 14, 2021 10:32:51 GMT 7
I don't know how useful the following is because the site doesn't show its assumptions, it may therefore be just an extrapolation of current data rather than a meaningful forecast...nevertheless: poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb#:~:text=GBP%20to%20THB%20forecast%20for%20June%202021.,The%20averaged%20exchange%20rate%2044.90. The above link shows GBP/THB ending the year at almost 45, a lot can happen between now and then! But GBP is undervalued and Brexit was supposed to be the vehicle that would allow the Pound to rise to glory (plays rousing verse of Land of Hope and Glory). My money is on THB remaining weak until tourism begins to recover, thereafter it will strengthen and potentially outstrip any gains made by the Pound. If your buy point was 40 previously, perhaps it could now be 42, making it 45 would be a silly bet...I think.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Mar 14, 2021 11:27:39 GMT 7
I don't know how useful the following is because the site doesn't show its assumptions, it may therefore be just an extrapolation of current data rather than a meaningful forecast It's an utterly meaningless site. To make all those forecasts would require a massive team of economists. You're right: it's simply extrapolating from recent performance. Completely worthless, and a total waste of electrons.
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 14, 2021 13:28:54 GMT 7
When is the Baht hitting 80/£? In the same year you next see one of these fly past your window. I'll keep my eyes peeled. Do you think I should buy a bar in Kalasin? My mate Dave says its a goldmine up there.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 14, 2021 15:48:20 GMT 7
In the same year you next see one of these fly past your window. I'll keep my eyes peeled. Do you think I should buy a bar in Kalasin? My mate Dave says its a goldmine up there. I would, in an instant, your mate Dave's as sharp as a thimble. Can I buy in too, I'd like shares, I'll write you a cheque.
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 14, 2021 16:31:01 GMT 7
I'll keep my eyes peeled. Do you think I should buy a bar in Kalasin? My mate Dave says its a goldmine up there. I would, in an instant, your mate Dave's as sharp as a thimble. Can I buy in too, I'd like shares, I'll write you a cheque. As long as you don't plan to sit in the bar getting drunk. I'm not allowing that sort of thing in my pub.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 15, 2021 21:20:48 GMT 7
When is the Baht hitting 80/£? A couple more years and I'll have enough for the retirement quals...800000 Baht...then I can retire woo hooo! You dreamers are behind the curve, a bit like the yids, time moves on. Waiting for the Thais to clear the country of the riff raff and raise the bank requirements to 1.5 million, woo hooooo.
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